Monarch

Monarch

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World Cup spread comparison

HIP-4 vs Polymarket across knockout phases · 14 games · 30h pre-kickoff through game end
HyperliquidPolymarketDuring incentive windows HIP-4 spreads averaged 0.26¢ — 2.7× tighter than Polymarket (0.71¢).
Pre-incentive
Avg. spread
HIP-40.56¢
Polymarket0.73¢
1.3× tighter than Polymarket
Incentive
Avg. spread
HIP-40.26¢
Polymarket0.71¢
2.7× tighter than Polymarket
Live
Avg. spread
HIP-41.03¢
Polymarket0.97¢
Polymarket 0.06¢ tighter
HIP-4PolymarketIncentive startLive period
Loading spread analysis…
Spread = median top-of-book spread in cents over 5-minute buckets. HIP-4 = Monarch builder book · Polymarket = combined book. Phases: pre-incentive (30h before incentive start), incentive (incentive start → kickoff), live (kickoff → game end). Window: 30h pre-kickoff through resolution · Snapshot generated 19 Jul 2026.